The Sources
Every number, every projection, every claim comes from official government agencies and peer-reviewed research.
100% Official Government Data
This project draws from 107 unique sources, organized across major U.S. government agencies, international organizations, and peer-reviewed academic research. There is no speculation. There are no conspiracy theories. Every factual claim can be verified by accessing the original source documents.
Source Breakdown
Why These Sources Matter
The credibility of this analysis rests entirely on the quality of its sources. We prioritize:
- Official government agencies with statutory mandates for objective analysis
- Non-partisan research institutions like the CBO, GAO, and Federal Reserve
- Peer-reviewed academic research from credentialed economists
- International organizations providing comparative context (IMF, World Bank)
- Primary data over media interpretations or secondary analysis
When politicians brief behind closed doors, they see these same reports. When financial professionals prepare high-net-worth clients, they analyze this same data. The difference is that institutional constraints prevent public candor. This project exists because the information deserves to be public.
Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
What the CBO Is
The Congressional Budget Office is a non-partisan federal agency within the legislative branch that provides Congress with objective, impartial analysis of budgetary and economic issues. Created by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, the CBO is required by law to provide analysis without regard to political preferences.
The office employs approximately 275 people, primarily economists and policy analysts with advanced degrees. Staff includes specialists in health care, national security, income security, tax policy, and macroeconomic forecasting. The CBO Director is appointed to a four-year term by the Speaker of the House and President pro tempore of the Senate, without regard to political affiliation.
Why it matters: The CBO's projections carry statutory weight. When the CBO scores legislation, those numbers determine whether bills comply with budget rules. When the CBO projects deficits, those projections inform appropriations decisions. Politicians may dispute CBO assumptions, but they cannot ignore CBO analysis.
Key CBO Reports Used in This Analysis
Social Security Administration (SSA)
What the SSA Is
The Social Security Administration is the federal agency responsible for administering Social Security, the nation's social insurance program. The SSA's Office of the Chief Actuary employs professional actuaries who produce the annual Trustees Reports required by law.
These actuarial projections use demographic data (birth rates, death rates, immigration), economic assumptions (wage growth, inflation, interest rates), and disability incidence rates to project Trust Fund balances over 75-year horizons. The methodology is peer-reviewed by external actuarial organizations and follows professional actuarial standards.
Why it matters: The SSA Trustees Reports are not predictions subject to debate. They are statutory requirements documenting the system's financial status. The 2033 Trust Fund depletion is written into federal law. When the fund reaches zero, automatic benefit cuts are mandatory unless Congress changes the law.
Key SSA Reports Used in This Analysis
IMF & International Organizations
What the IMF Is
The International Monetary Fund is an international organization of 190 member countries working to promote global monetary cooperation, financial stability, and sustainable economic growth. The IMF employs economists from member countries to conduct surveillance of global economic conditions and provide technical assistance.
Why it matters: The IMF provides comparative context showing how the U.S. fiscal trajectory compares to other nations, analyzes historical debt crises to identify patterns, and offers international perspective unavailable from domestic agencies.
Key International Reports Used
Other Government & Research Sources
Beyond the major institutions above, this analysis draws from additional federal agencies, research organizations, and academic studies to provide comprehensive documentation.
Verify Everything Yourself
Every citation in this project includes a direct link to the source document. Click any superscript number to see the full citation. Click the citation to access the original CBO report, SSA actuarial table, or Federal Reserve analysis.
This is not "trust me, I'm an economist." This is "here's the government's own data—verify it yourself." The synthesis is original. The interpretation is subjective. The underlying data is objective and verifiable.
If you find a citation that doesn't support its claim, that's an error we'll correct. The commitment to accuracy requires accountability.